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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Oct 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at 19/0656Z from Region 3854 (S06W85). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (20 Oct) and likely to be moderate on days two and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 489 km/s at 19/2017Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 19/0247Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 19/0335Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 167 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Oct), quiet levels on day two (21 Oct) and unsettled to active levels on day three (22 Oct). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (20 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Oct to 22 Oct
Class M60%55%55%
Class X10%05%05%
Proton10%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Oct 162
  Predicted   20 Oct-22 Oct 160/165/165
  90 Day Mean        19 Oct 220

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct  010/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Oct  016/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct  011/012-006/005-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct to 22 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%10%30%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%20%30%
Major-severe storm30%15%40%

All times in UTC

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