Viewing archive of Friday, 15 November 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Nov 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar events of the period were a pair of M1 events
observed at 15/0146Z and 15/1218, respectively from Region 3893
(S19E34). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(16 Nov, 17 Nov, 18 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 462 km/s at 15/0053Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 14/2218Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
15/0022Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 379 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (16 Nov, 17 Nov)
and quiet to active levels on day three (18 Nov). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (16 Nov, 17
Nov, 18 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Nov 149 Predicted 16 Nov-18 Nov 145/145/140 90 Day Mean 15 Nov 213
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov 010/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 009/010-009/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 30% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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