Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 November 2024

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Nov 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 13/2259Z from Region 3886 (S07W62). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Nov, 16 Nov, 17 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 448 km/s at 14/1252Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 14/0605Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 14/1614Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 196 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (16 Nov, 17 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (15 Nov, 16 Nov, 17 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
Class M60%60%60%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Nov 147
  Predicted   15 Nov-17 Nov 145/145/155
  90 Day Mean        14 Nov 214

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Nov  009/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov  009/012-009/010-009/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%25%
Major-severe storm40%30%25%

All times in UTC

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