Viewing archive of Wednesday, 13 November 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Nov 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
13/1708Z from Region 3889 (S10W15). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(14 Nov, 15 Nov, 16 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 372 km/s at 13/1212Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 13/1223Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
13/1113Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 616 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (14 Nov, 15 Nov) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (16 Nov). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (14 Nov, 15
Nov, 16 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Nov 150 Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 150/145/145 90 Day Mean 13 Nov 215
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 013/012-009/012-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/13 | M1.7 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 166 -0.4 |
| Last 30 days | 163.2 +18.4 |