Viewing archive of Friday, 15 November 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 Nov 15 1257 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Nov 2024	147	013
16 Nov 2024	147	013
17 Nov 2024	147	011

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with one M-class flare identified. During this period, two sunspot groups decayed, and a total of five numbered sunspot groups are currently observed on the disk. The most complex region remains SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Region 3889), currently located at S09W29, with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. The largest flare was an M1.1 flare (SIDC Flare 2609), peaking on November 15 at 01:46 UTC, produced by the recurrent SIDC Sunspot Group 294 (previously NOAA Active Region 3870, now 3893). SIDC Sunspot Group 294 (NOAA Active Region 3893), currently located at S19E48, has grown in magnetic complexity, developing into a Beta magnetic configuration, and has become more active over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a chance for M-class flares, possibly produced by the most complex SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Region 3889) and the growing SIDC Sunspot Group 294 (NOAA Active Region 3893).

Coronal mass ejections

A significant number of large filaments are currently facing Earth. So far, the filaments remain stable, and no Earth- directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Coronal holes

The recurrent SIDC Coronal Hole 68, which first reached the central meridian on 2024-11-07 (and initially on 2024-09-10), is now positioned on the western side of the Sun, and its high-speed streams are currently influencing solar wind conditions near Earth. SIDC Coronal Hole 78, an equatorial coronal hole with positive polarity, first reached the central meridian on 2024-11-14 and is currently transitioning across the central meridian.

Solar wind

Over the past 24 hours, solar wind conditions near Earth were influenced by the high-speed stream associated with the positive-polarity, mid-latitude northern coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 68), which crossed the central meridian on 2024-11-07. The solar wind speed reached values close to 500 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field was elevated, with values ranging from 7 nT to 13 nT, and the southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field, Bz, was predominantly negative, fluctuating between -12.7 nT and 4.0 nT. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain under the influence of this high-speed stream over the next 24 hours. Conditions are then expected to slowly return to a slow solar wind regime. Later, on November 17-18, high-speed streams associated with Coronal Hole 78, an equatorial coronal hole with positive polarity that first reached the central meridian on 2024-11-14 and is currently transitioning across the central meridian, may reach Earth and impact the solar wind conditions.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were active (NOAA Kp 4, K BEL 3) in responce to the ongoing influence of high-speed streams from the mid-latitude northern coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 68). Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain quiet to unsettled, with possible active conditions over the next 24 hours, especially if the southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field, Bz, remains negative for an extended period.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to stay below this threshold level over the next 24 hours. Due to the enhanced solar and flaring activity, a slight chance of an increase cannot be fully excluded.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 071, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Nov 2024

Wolf number Catania	131
10cm solar flux	147
AK Chambon La Forêt	027
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	014
Estimated international sunspot number	092 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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