Viewing archive of Thursday, 12 December 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Dec 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
12/1743Z from Region 3922 (S18E34). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Dec, 14 Dec,
15 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 403 km/s at 12/0222Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 12/0440Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
11/2348Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1175 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (13 Dec, 14 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (15 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Dec to 15 Dec
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Dec 161 Predicted 13 Dec-15 Dec 165/165/165 90 Day Mean 12 Dec 200
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec 005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec to 15 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/15 | M3.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 99.5 -53 |
| Last 30 days | 117.6 -37.8 |