Viewing archive of Saturday, 26 October 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Oct 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
26/0719Z from Region 3873 (S10E49). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Oct, 28
Oct, 29 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 26/1739Z. Total IMF reached 26
nT at 26/1955Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -19 nT at
26/1821Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 16 pfu at 26/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 249 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (27 Oct, 29 Oct)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (28 Oct). Protons are
expected to cross threshold on day one (27 Oct) and have a chance of
crossing threshold on days two and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 99% | 50% | 50% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Oct 238 Predicted 27 Oct-29 Oct 240/245/245 90 Day Mean 26 Oct 220
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct 011/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct 011/015-017/025-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 55% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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