Viewing archive of Friday, 1 November 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Nov 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at
31/2120Z from Region 3878 (N16E23). There are currently 13 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Nov, 03
Nov, 04 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 621 km/s at 31/2226Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 01/0636Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
31/2108Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 15 pfu at 01/0125Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 203 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Nov) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on day one (02 Nov) and have a chance of
crossing threshold on days two and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 50% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Nov 256 Predicted 02 Nov-04 Nov 260/250/240 90 Day Mean 01 Nov 222
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov 006/008-012/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 50% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 103.3 -49.2 |
| Last 30 days | 115.4 -40.8 |