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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Nov 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at 31/2120Z from Region 3878 (N16E23). There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Nov, 03 Nov, 04 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 621 km/s at 31/2226Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 01/0636Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 31/2108Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 15 pfu at 01/0125Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 203 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Nov) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (02 Nov) and have a chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
Class M75%75%75%
Class X35%35%35%
Proton50%30%30%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Nov 256
  Predicted   02 Nov-04 Nov 260/250/240
  90 Day Mean        01 Nov 222

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct  008/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Nov  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov  006/008-012/015-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov to 04 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%35%30%
Minor storm05%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm25%50%45%

All times in UTC

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