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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Nov 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 02/0831Z from Region 3876 (S05W75). There are currently 15 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (03 Nov, 04 Nov) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (05 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 511 km/s at 02/1838Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 02/1030Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 02/1035Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5 pfu at 02/0210Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 162 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (03 Nov, 04 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (05 Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (03 Nov, 04 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Nov to 05 Nov
Class M75%75%50%
Class X35%35%10%
Proton30%30%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Nov 251
  Predicted   03 Nov-05 Nov 250/240/230
  90 Day Mean        02 Nov 222

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov  006/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Nov  009/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov  012/015-010/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov to 05 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%15%
Minor storm15%15%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%20%
Major-severe storm50%45%20%

All times in UTC

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