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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Nov 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at 06/1340Z from Region 3883 (S06E07). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Nov, 08 Nov, 09 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 490 km/s at 06/0119Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 05/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 05/2316Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 116 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (07 Nov), quiet to active levels on day two (08 Nov) and unsettled to active levels on day three (09 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (07 Nov, 08 Nov, 09 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Nov to 09 Nov
Class M80%80%80%
Class X35%35%35%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Nov 260
  Predicted   07 Nov-09 Nov 225/220/230
  90 Day Mean        06 Nov 220

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov  010/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Nov  009/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov  022/026-015/016-017/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov to 09 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%35%40%
Minor storm25%10%15%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm25%25%30%
Major-severe storm65%45%55%

All times in UTC

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