Viewing archive of Wednesday, 6 November 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Nov 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at
06/1340Z from Region 3883 (S06E07). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Nov, 08
Nov, 09 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 490 km/s at 06/0119Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 05/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
05/2316Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 116 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (07 Nov), quiet to
active levels on day two (08 Nov) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (09 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (07 Nov, 08 Nov, 09 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Nov to 09 Nov
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Nov 260 Predicted 07 Nov-09 Nov 225/220/230 90 Day Mean 06 Nov 220
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov 010/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov 022/026-015/016-017/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov to 09 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 45% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 103.3 -49.2 |
| Last 30 days | 115.4 -40.8 |