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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Nov 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 05/0654Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov, 08 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 05/1642Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 05/1253Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 05/1336Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 124 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Nov), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (07 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (08 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov, 08 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
Class M80%80%80%
Class X35%35%35%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Nov 245
  Predicted   06 Nov-08 Nov 230/225/220
  90 Day Mean        05 Nov 221

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov  011/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Nov  009/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov  012/018-022/024-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%30%
Minor storm15%25%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm25%25%30%
Major-severe storm55%65%40%

All times in UTC

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