Viewing archive of Tuesday, 5 November 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Nov 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
05/0654Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07
Nov, 08 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 05/1642Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 05/1253Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
05/1336Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 124 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Nov), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (07 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (08 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov, 08 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Nov 245 Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 230/225/220 90 Day Mean 05 Nov 221
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 011/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 012/018-022/024-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 65% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/07 | M2.5 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 194.5 +28.1 |
| Last 30 days | 160.2 +7.5 |