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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Oct 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 09/0156Z from Region 3848 (N12W25). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (10 Oct, 11 Oct) and likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day three (12 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 637 km/s at 09/0820Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 08/2223Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 08/2238Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1072 pfu at 09/2100Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 09/0805Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 363 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to severe storm levels on day one (10 Oct), minor storm to severe storm levels on day two (11 Oct) and active to minor storm levels on day three (12 Oct). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (10 Oct), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (11 Oct) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (12 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
Class M75%75%70%
Class X40%40%35%
Proton75%50%30%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Oct 220
  Predicted   10 Oct-12 Oct 245/240/235
  90 Day Mean        09 Oct 224

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct  029/053
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Oct  016/019
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct  070/125-086/122-030/042

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%30%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm50%50%15%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%10%
Minor storm10%10%20%
Major-severe storm80%80%60%

All times in UTC

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