Viewing archive of Thursday, 12 September 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Sep 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
12/0943Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(13 Sep, 14 Sep, 15 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 623 km/s at 12/1714Z. Total IMF
reached 29 nT at 12/1305Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-26 nT at 12/1306Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (13 Sep), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (14 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day
three (15 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (13 Sep, 14 Sep, 15 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Sep to 15 Sep
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Sep 201 Predicted 13 Sep-15 Sep 210/210/205 90 Day Mean 12 Sep 217
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep 040/070 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep 023/035-017/025-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep to 15 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 60% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 103.3 -49.2 |
| Last 30 days | 115.4 -40.8 |