Viewing archive of Friday, 16 August 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Aug 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
16/1324Z from Region 3780 (S08W87). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(17 Aug, 18 Aug, 19 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 481 km/s at 16/0802Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 15/2111Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
16/0005Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 289 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Aug), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (18 Aug) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (19 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (17 Aug, 18 Aug, 19 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Aug 225 Predicted 17 Aug-19 Aug 225/220/215 90 Day Mean 16 Aug 202
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 015/018-023/030-016/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 55% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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