Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 August 2024

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Aug 15 2320 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 15/0348Z from Region 3780 (S09W74). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug, 18 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 411 km/s at 15/0031Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 14/2213Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 15/1249Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 289 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Aug), quiet to active levels on day two (17 Aug) and active to minor storm levels on day three (18 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug, 18 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
Class M75%75%75%
Class X25%25%25%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Aug 227
  Predicted   16 Aug-18 Aug 230/225/220
  90 Day Mean        15 Aug 202

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug  011/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Aug  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug  009/010-015/018-020/030

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%35%25%
Minor storm05%15%30%
Major-severe storm01%05%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%05%
Minor storm25%30%15%
Major-severe storm25%50%55%

All times in UTC

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