Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 August 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Aug 15 2320 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
15/0348Z from Region 3780 (S09W74). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Aug, 17
Aug, 18 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 411 km/s at 15/0031Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 14/2213Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
15/1249Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 289 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Aug), quiet to active
levels on day two (17 Aug) and active to minor storm levels on day three
(18 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
one, two, and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug, 18 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Aug 227 Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 230/225/220 90 Day Mean 15 Aug 202
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 011/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 009/010-015/018-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 50% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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