Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 August 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 Aug 15 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Aug 2024	240	007
16 Aug 2024	236	014
17 Aug 2024	230	010

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels, with three M-class flare recorded. The largest flare was a M5.26-flare, with peak time 15:49 UTC on August 14 and is associated with NOAA AR 3784 (beta-gamma-delta). The second largest flare was a M1.13-flare, with peak time 03:48 UTC on August 15 and is associated with NOAA AR 3780 (beta-gamma-delta). There are currently 10 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3780 (beta-gamma- delta) and NOAA AR 3784 (beta-gamma-delta) are the largest, most magnetically complex regions on disk and produced most of the flaring activity. NOAA AR 3789 (beta) has emerged on the north-east quadrant of the Sun. NOAA AR 3787 has turned into a plage region. The other regions were stable and quiet. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares very likely and a chance for an X-class flare.

Coronal mass ejections

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images. Further analyses of the CMEs observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data at 10:12 UTC on August 13 and at 04:50 UTC on August 14 show that no impact is expected at Earth. The partial halo CME observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data around 09:50 UTC on August 14 that was associated with a X1.11-flare, with peak time 06:40 UTC on August 14 is expected to arrive at earth on August 18.

Coronal holes

A negative polarity mid-latitude coronal hole is continuums to transit the central meridian in the northern hemisphere. It’s possible that the associated high-speed stream arrives to Earth around August 16. A second positive high-latitude polarity coronal hole has started transitioning the central meridian in the southern hemisphere. For this coronal hole, no impact at Earth is expected from its associated high-speed stream.

Solar wind

The solar wind conditions reflected a slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed varied between 335 km/s to 432 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field varied between 5 nT and 9 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -5 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) with periods in the positive. In the next 24 hours, the solar wind is can become perturbed due to the possible arrival of a high-speed stream on August 16.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1 - 3 and K BEL 1 - 3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to active levels in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 157, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Aug 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	248
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	011
Estimated Ap	016
Estimated international sunspot number	179 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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