Viewing archive of Wednesday, 11 September 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 Sep 11 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
11 Sep 2024205008
12 Sep 2024200018
13 Sep 2024198010

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderate with two M1 flares detected during the past 24 hours. The brightest flare, an M1.6 at 10 Sep 15:47 UTC, was emitted from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3806 that has now rotated behind the solar limb. The second flare, an M1.0, was associated with NOAA AR 3814 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma-Delta, Catania sunspot group no 83) and peaked at 10 Sep 23:50 UTC. Low M-class flares are still possible in the next 24 hours, although it is more likely the activity to be limited to C-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours.

Solar wind

Solar Wind (SW) conditions resemble the slow SW regime during the past 24 hours. The SW speed dropped from 460 to 330 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) ranged between 7 and 1 nT during the past 24 hours. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) fluctuated between -4 and 6 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was directed predominately towards the Sun in the past 24 hours. A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is expected to arrive in the next 24 hours and disrupt the SW conditions.

Geomagnetism

During the last 24 hours geomagnetic conditions were both globally and locally quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1 to 3- and K BEL 1 to 3). A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is expected to arrive in the next 24 hours and disrupt the geomagnetic conditions to active or minor storm levels.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is likely to remain so.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, was at nominal levels during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at very low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 157, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 10 Sep 2024

Wolf number Catania173
10cm solar flux205
AK Chambon La Forêt010
AK Wingst008
Estimated Ap007
Estimated international sunspot number149 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxEndLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
10153415471602----M1.6--/----
10233823502357N14W01M1.0183/3814II/1

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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