Viewing archive of Wednesday, 11 September 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Sep 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
11/1752Z from Region 3814 (N15W16). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(12 Sep, 13 Sep, 14 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 422 km/s at 10/2120Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 11/1729Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
11/1959Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 192 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (12 Sep), quiet to major
storm levels on day two (13 Sep) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (14 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (12 Sep, 13 Sep, 14 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Sep to 14 Sep
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Sep 207 Predicted 12 Sep-14 Sep 200/200/200 90 Day Mean 11 Sep 217
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Sep 012/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep 012/025-023/035-017/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep to 14 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 20% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 75% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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