Viewing archive of Friday, 13 September 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Sep 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
13/0656Z from Region 3811 (S13W0*). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(14 Sep, 15 Sep, 16 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 619 km/s at 13/0104Z. Total IMF
reached 14 nT at 12/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 13/2015Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1135 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and three (14 Sep,
16 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (15 Sep). Protons have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (14
Sep, 15 Sep, 16 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Sep to 16 Sep
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Sep 186 Predicted 14 Sep-16 Sep 185/180/180 90 Day Mean 13 Sep 217
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep 036/078 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep 025/035 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep 017/024-012/015-016/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep to 16 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 45% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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