Viewing archive of Monday, 2 December 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Dec 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
02/0705Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec,
05 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 446 km/s at 02/2051Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 02/2054Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
02/0005Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 103 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec, 05
Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Dec to 05 Dec
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Dec 185 Predicted 03 Dec-05 Dec 185/180/170 90 Day Mean 02 Dec 205
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec 005/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec to 05 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/04 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| December 2024 | 107.3 -59.1 |
| Last 30 days | 130.7 -30.1 |