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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Dec 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
01/1622Z from Region 3906 (S16W49). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Dec, 03 Dec,
04 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 468 km/s at 01/1754Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
30/2125Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
01/0622Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 112 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Dec) and quiet levels
on days two and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Dec 186 Predicted 02 Dec-04 Dec 185/185/170 90 Day Mean 01 Dec 206
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov 009/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/04 | M2.3 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| December 2024 | 107.3 -59.1 |
| Last 30 days | 131.3 -30.2 |