Viewing archive of Saturday, 28 December 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Dec 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
28/1121Z from Region 3932 (S18W34). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (29 Dec) and
expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days two and
three (30 Dec, 31 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 429 km/s at 28/0149Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
28/0900Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
28/0900Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 608 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (29 Dec, 30 Dec)
and quiet levels on day three (31 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (29 Dec) and have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days two and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
| Class M | 70% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Dec 260 Predicted 29 Dec-31 Dec 260/255/240 90 Day Mean 28 Dec 206
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Dec 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec 007/008-009/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/29 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/29 | M1.3 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 130 -22.5 |
| Last 30 days | 129 -20.4 |