Viewing archive of Friday, 27 December 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Dec 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
27/2035Z from Region 3938 (N19E25). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (28 Dec,
29 Dec) and expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on
day three (30 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 691 km/s at 27/0850Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
27/1704Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
27/1527Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 969 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (28 Dec,
29 Dec, 30 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one and two (28 Dec, 29 Dec) and have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day three (30 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 75% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Dec 259 Predicted 28 Dec-30 Dec 260/260/240 90 Day Mean 27 Dec 206
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec 003/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Dec 004/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec 007/008-007/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/01/04 | X1.85 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/01/29 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/01/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2024 | 154.5 +2 |
| January 2025 | 144.8 -9.8 |
| Last 30 days | 146.6 +14.9 |