Viewing archive of Sunday, 29 December 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Dec 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
29/0718Z from Region 3936 (N12W42). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Dec, 31
Dec, 01 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 419 km/s at 29/0755Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
29/0856Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
29/1306Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 307 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 Dec), quiet to severe
storm levels on day two (31 Dec) and quiet to minor storm levels on day
three (01 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one and two (30 Dec, 31 Dec) and have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day three (01 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Dec to 01 Jan
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 75% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Dec 255 Predicted 30 Dec-01 Jan 255/240/210 90 Day Mean 29 Dec 207
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan 009/008-033/050-018/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec to 01 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 35% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 50% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 01% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 85% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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