Viewing archive of Monday, 30 December 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Dec 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
30/0414Z from Region 3936 (N12W55). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Dec, 01
Jan, 02 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 380 km/s at 29/2250Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 30/0323Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
30/0412Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 163 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to severe storm levels on day one (31 Dec), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (01 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (02 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one and two (31 Dec, 01 Jan) and have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day three (02 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Dec 224 Predicted 31 Dec-02 Jan 225/225/215 90 Day Mean 30 Dec 207
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 028/050-018/020-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 40% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 30% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 85% | 65% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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