Viewing archive of Saturday, 25 January 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Jan 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 25 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
25/0022Z from Region 3961 (S10W76). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (26 Jan, 27 Jan, 28 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 479 km/s at 24/2254Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
24/2139Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
24/2112Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 902 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Jan) and quiet levels on
days two and three (27 Jan, 28 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (26 Jan, 27 Jan, 28 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jan 182 Predicted 26 Jan-28 Jan 175/170/160 90 Day Mean 25 Jan 200
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan 006/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan 014/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/01/04 | X1.85 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/01/27 | M2.6 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/01/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2024 | 154.5 +2 |
| January 2025 | 145.3 -9.2 |
| Last 30 days | 151.5 +23.5 |