Viewing archive of Saturday, 25 January 2025

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2025 Jan 25 1301 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
25 Jan 2025	210	029
26 Jan 2025	209	033
27 Jan 2025	209	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with few C-class flares and 1 M-class flare identified. The largest flare was a M2.7 flare peaking at 21:04 UTC on Jan 24, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 346 (NOAA Active Region 3961). During the flare, the source region (SIDC 346) of the flare had beta-gamma configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. A total of 8 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Groups 346 and 383 (NOAA AR 3961 and 3971) are the complex regions with its beta-gamma magnetic configurations. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected, M-class flares probable, and a chance of X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections

A coronal mass ejection (CME) has been first observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 images at 03:09 on Jan 25. This CME was associated with flaring activities from the SIDC Sunspot Group 346 (NOAA Active Region 3961) in the SW quadrant of the Sun. It has a projected width of about 110 deg and a projected speed of about 420 km/s (as measured by Cactus tool), with the bulk of the mass going strongly SW from the Sun- Earth line. Therefore only a glancing blow associated with this CME can be expected at the Earth on Jan 28-29. Other flaring activities from SIDC Sunspot Groups 342 and 346 (NOAA AR 3959 and 3961) were accompanied with faint and narrow CMEs which are not expected to arrive at the Earth. Another complex eruption from behind the solar E limb resulted in a partial halo CME, which was observed in the LASCO-C2 images starting around 12:32 UTC on Jan 24, is not expected to arrive at the Earth. No other Earth- directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hours.

Solar wind

Earth is presently inside the slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed ranged from 370 km/s to 500 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 1 nT to 6 nT. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -4 and 5 nT. In the next 24 hours, we expect enhanced solar wind conditions with the possible arrival of coronal mass ejections that was observed lifting from the SW limb of the Sun on Jan 22.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (NOAA Kp and K_BEL 1 to 2) both globally and locally. In the next 24 hours, active to moderate storm conditions (K 4 to 6) are possible if the Earth experiences impact from the coronal mass ejection that was observed lifting from the SW limb of the Sun on Jan 22.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. However, a proton event over the next day cannot be excluded due to SIDC Sunspot Group 342 (NOAA Active region 3959).

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the 1000 pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours. However, greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, reached above the threshold level at 17:50 UTC on Jan 24 and dropped below the threshold level at 00:10 UTC on Jan 25. The electron flux is expected to remain below the threshold in the coming 24 hours, though crossing the threshold level cannot be excluded. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level, and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 113, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 24 Jan 2025

Wolf number Catania	187
10cm solar flux	205
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	140 - Based on 13 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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