Viewing archive of Wednesday, 18 December 2024

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Dec 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 18/0734Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Dec, 20 Dec, 21 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 604 km/s at 18/2048Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 17/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 17/2316Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 338 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 Dec, 20 Dec, 21 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
Class M40%45%45%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Dec 174
  Predicted   19 Dec-21 Dec 175/185/190
  90 Day Mean        18 Dec 200

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec  020/025
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Dec  011/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec  005/005-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm15%15%15%

All times in UTC

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