Viewing archive of Friday, 20 December 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 Dec 20 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
20 Dec 2024179007
21 Dec 2024181007
22 Dec 2024193007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

A total of 6 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. There have been four M-class flares in the last 24 hours. The largest one was an M3.8 flare peaking at 15:34 UTC on 19 December, coming from SIDC Sunspot Group 323 (NOAA Active Region 3928, beta magnetic field configuration). The other M-class flares came from the same AR and one from SIDC Sunspot Group 337 (NOAA Active Region 3924, beta gamma magnetic field configuration), which is rotating out of view over the west limb. More M-class flares can be expected and X-flares are possible in the next 24 hours.

Coronal mass ejections

A full halo CME was observed at 18:16 UTC on 19 December by LASCO C3 (after a data gap of several hours). The source of this CME is believed to be backsided and will thus not arrive to the Earth.

Solar wind

The solar wind at Earth has a speed around 460 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 8 nT (DSCOVR). Similar conditions are expected to persist in the next 24 hours. The CME from 15 December may still arrive today, but it has probably missed the Earth.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions have reached active levels both globally and locally (Kp and K_Bel up to 4). Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions expected for the next 24 hours. The CME from 15 December may still arrive today and create disturbed conditions, but it has probably missed the Earth.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 remained below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 152, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 19 Dec 2024

Wolf number Catania117
10cm solar flux175
AK Chambon La Forêt016
AK Wingst014
Estimated Ap012
Estimated international sunspot number121 - Based on 09 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxEndLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
19102110381057S19W72M1.6SF50/3924
19152715341539----M3.8--/3928
19185619001904----M1.7--/3928
20072007260735----M2.150/3924
20111511181122----M2.559/3928

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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