Issued: 2024 Dec 21 1231 UTC
M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
21 Dec 2024 | 184 | 007 |
22 Dec 2024 | 186 | 007 |
23 Dec 2024 | 188 | 007 |
A total of 9 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 1 M-class flare identified. Most of the activity came from the sunspot groups that rotated into view over the east limb in the past days. The largest flare was a M1.9 flare (SIDC Flare 3030) peaking on December 21 at 00:38 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 341 (NOAA Active Region 3932). Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares likely and a chance for X-class flares.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the last 24 hours.
A small coronal hole, SIDC Coronal Hole 83 (equatorial coronal hole with a negative polarity) crossed central meridian on December 20.
The solar wind at Earth has a speed around 470 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 8 nT (DSCOVR). The interplanetary magnetic field has a negative polarity (towards the Sun). Similar slow solar wind conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.
Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to unsettled both globally and locally (Kp and K_Bel up to 3). Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.
The greater-than-10 MeV GOES proton flux has been slightly increasing since around 17:00 UTC on December 20. While it remains below the threshold and will probably not exceed it, the possibility of crossing the threshold within the next 24 hours cannot be excluded.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 remained below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 164, based on 06 stations.
Wolf number Catania | 212 |
10cm solar flux | 184 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 022 |
AK Wingst | 016 |
Estimated Ap | 015 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 154 - Based on 21 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | End | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
21 | 0033 | 0038 | 0042 | ---- | M1.9 | 66/3932 | III/2 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
All times in UTC
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