Viewing archive of Monday, 6 January 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Jan 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 6 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
06/1624Z from Region 3947 (N11E16). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (07 Jan) and likely to be
moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three
(08 Jan, 09 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 616 km/s at 06/1532Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 05/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
06/0328Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5 pfu at 05/2120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1508 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Jan), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (08 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (09 Jan).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (07 Jan, 08 Jan, 09 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
| Class M | 70% | 65% | 60% |
| Class X | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jan 172 Predicted 07 Jan-09 Jan 165/165/170 90 Day Mean 06 Jan 201
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan 012/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan 017/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 012/012-009/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 25% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Saturday, 4 January 2025
Sunspot region 3947, X-class solar flares
Monday, 30 December 2024
Two earth-directed coronal mass ejections
Sunday, 29 December 2024
Strong G3 geoamagnetic storm watch issued
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/01/04 | X1.85 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/01/07 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/01/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| December 2024 | 154.5 +2 |
| January 2025 | 166.3 +11.8 |
| Last 30 days | 151.1 +28.5 |