Viewing archive of Tuesday, 7 January 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Jan 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 7 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
07/0609Z from Region 3947 (N12E03). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (08 Jan) and likely to be
moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three
(09 Jan, 10 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 634 km/s at 07/0527Z. Total IMF reached 21
nT at 07/0831Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
07/0509Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3074 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jan to 10 Jan
| Class M | 70% | 65% | 60% |
| Class X | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jan 168 Predicted 08 Jan-10 Jan 165/170/170 90 Day Mean 07 Jan 200
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan 013/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan 009/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan to 10 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Saturday, 4 January 2025
Sunspot region 3947, X-class solar flares
Monday, 30 December 2024
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Sunday, 29 December 2024
Strong G3 geoamagnetic storm watch issued
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/01/04 | X1.85 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/01/09 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/01/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2024 | 154.5 +2 |
| January 2025 | 159.6 +5.1 |
| Last 30 days | 151.7 +31.9 |