Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 January 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Jan 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 16 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
16/0726Z from Region 3964 (N07W22). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan, 19 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 649 km/s at 16/0147Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 16/0831Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
16/1847Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 593 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (17 Jan, 18 Jan) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (19 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jan 208 Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 210/210/215 90 Day Mean 16 Jan 198
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 011/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 011/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 012/015-011/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 50% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/01/04 | X1.85 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/01/17 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/01/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2024 | 154.5 +2 |
| January 2025 | 131.4 -23.1 |
| Last 30 days | 155.9 +39.5 |