Viewing archive of Wednesday, 12 February 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Feb 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 43 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
12/1247Z from Region 3992 (S06W11). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Feb, 14 Feb,
15 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 596 km/s at 12/0038Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 12/0410Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 12/0602Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2050 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (13 Feb), quiet to
active levels on day two (14 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (15 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Feb 166 Predicted 13 Feb-15 Feb 165/165/165 90 Day Mean 12 Feb 191
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb 010/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb 016/019 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 017/020-012/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 55% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/01/04 | X1.85 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/02/13 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/01/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| January 2025 | 137 -17.5 |
| February 2025 | 145.7 +8.7 |
| Last 30 days | 148.6 -1.4 |