Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 February 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Feb 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 42 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
11/0535Z from Region 3981 (N07W99). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb,
14 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 628 km/s at 11/0202Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 11/0153Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
11/0049Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2077 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (12 Feb, 14 Feb)
and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (13 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
| Class M | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Feb 153 Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 150/150/145 90 Day Mean 11 Feb 191
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 017/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 015/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 012/015-017/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 60% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/01/04 | X1.85 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/02/13 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/01/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| January 2025 | 137 -17.5 |
| February 2025 | 145.7 +8.7 |
| Last 30 days | 148.6 -1.4 |