Viewing archive of Sunday, 19 January 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Jan 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 19 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
19/0332Z from Region 3964 (N06W62). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(20 Jan, 21 Jan, 22 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 540 km/s at 18/2149Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 19/2004Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
19/2020Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 791 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Jan), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (21 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (22 Jan).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (20 Jan, 21 Jan, 22 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jan 234 Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 235/235/235 90 Day Mean 19 Jan 200
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 008/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 011/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 011/012-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/01/04 | X1.85 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/01/19 | M2.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/01/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2024 | 154.5 +2 |
| January 2025 | 132.7 -21.8 |
| Last 30 days | 156.7 +39.5 |