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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Jan 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 20 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
20/1315Z from Region 3968 (S19W86). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(21 Jan, 22 Jan, 23 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 666 km/s at 20/1857Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 20/0833Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 20/0840Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1175 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Jan) and quiet levels on
days two and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (21 Jan, 22 Jan, 23 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jan to 23 Jan
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jan 230 Predicted 21 Jan-23 Jan 225/225/225 90 Day Mean 20 Jan 201
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jan 017/019 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan 011/012-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan to 23 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/01/04 | X1.85 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/01/19 | M2.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/01/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2024 | 154.5 +2 |
| January 2025 | 140 -14.6 |
| Last 30 days | 160.7 +43.5 |