Viewing archive of Sunday, 16 March 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Mar 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 75 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (17 Mar, 18 Mar, 19 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 688 km/s at 16/0127Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 16/1618Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
16/1908Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 5055 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (17 Mar, 18 Mar) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (19 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Mar 186 Predicted 17 Mar-19 Mar 180/180/185 90 Day Mean 16 Mar 188
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar 014/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar 012/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 011/012-012/015-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 55% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/02/23 | X2.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/03/14 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/03/14 | Kp6- (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| February 2025 | 154.6 +17.6 |
| March 2025 | 129.9 -24.7 |
| Last 30 days | 138.5 -18.3 |