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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Mar 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 76 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (18 Mar, 19 Mar, 20 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 438 km/s at 16/2103Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 17/1133Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
17/1204Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 6680 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (18 Mar, 19
Mar, 20 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Mar 204 Predicted 18 Mar-20 Mar 188/186/186 90 Day Mean 17 Mar 189
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar 013/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 012/015-010/012-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 40% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/02/23 | X2.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/03/14 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/03/14 | Kp6- (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| February 2025 | 154.6 +17.6 |
| March 2025 | 129.9 -24.7 |
| Last 30 days | 136.7 -22.1 |