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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Mar 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 76 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2025

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Mar, 19 Mar, 20 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 438 km/s at 16/2103Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 17/1133Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 17/1204Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6680 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (18 Mar, 19 Mar, 20 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Mar 204
  Predicted   18 Mar-20 Mar 188/186/186
  90 Day Mean        17 Mar 189

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar  010/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Mar  013/017
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar  012/015-010/012-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar to 20 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%30%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm55%40%40%

All times in UTC

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