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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Apr 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (14 Apr,
15 Apr) and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class
flare on day three (16 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 553 km/s at 13/0223Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 12/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 12/2128Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1149 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (14 Apr, 15 Apr) and
unsettled to major storm levels on day three (16 Apr). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and
two (14 Apr, 15 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
| Class M | 80% | 75% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Apr 164 Predicted 14 Apr-16 Apr 160/150/140 90 Day Mean 13 Apr 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr 013/ 013 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr 014/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr 013/012-009/012-023/036
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 25% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 40% | 75% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/04/14 | M4.2 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/04/06 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| March 2025 | 134.2 -20.4 |
| April 2025 | 128.8 -5.4 |
| Last 30 days | 129.1 -15.1 |