Viewing archive of Monday, 14 April 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Apr 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (15 Apr,
16 Apr) and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class
flare on day three (17 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 523 km/s at 14/0716Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 14/0243Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
14/0304Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1464 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Apr), unsettled to major
storm levels on day two (16 Apr) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (17 Apr). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (15 Apr, 16 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
| Class M | 80% | 75% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Apr 152 Predicted 15 Apr-17 Apr 165/165/160 90 Day Mean 14 Apr 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr 014/ NA Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr 013/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 009/012-025/038-019/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 25% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 75% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/04/15 | M1.2 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/04/16 | Kp8- (G4) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| March 2025 | 134.2 -20.4 |
| April 2025 | 120.7 -13.5 |
| Last 30 days | 118.3 -22.1 |