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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Apr 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (16 Apr,
17 Apr) and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class
flare on day three (18 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 617 km/s at 15/2040Z. Total IMF
reached 27 nT at 15/1822Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-20 nT at 15/1820Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 2379 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (16 Apr), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (17 Apr) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (18 Apr). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (16 Apr, 17 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Apr to 18 Apr
| Class M | 80% | 75% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Apr 153 Predicted 16 Apr-18 Apr 160/160/155 90 Day Mean 15 Apr 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr 014/ NA Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr 030/054-022/030-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr to 18 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 65% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/04/15 | M1.2 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/04/15 | Kp6+ (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| March 2025 | 134.2 -20.4 |
| April 2025 | 124.1 -10.1 |
| Last 30 days | 124.7 -16.6 |