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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Mar 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 78 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar,
22 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 520 km/s at 19/1731Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 19/0335Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 19/0319Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 596 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (20 Mar), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (21 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day
three (22 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Mar to 22 Mar
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Mar 180 Predicted 20 Mar-22 Mar 180/175/165 90 Day Mean 19 Mar 189
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar 013/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar 019/023 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 015/020-009/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar to 22 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 35% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/03/28 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/03/27 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| February 2025 | 154.6 +17.6 |
| March 2025 | 130 -24.6 |
| Last 30 days | 130 -22.2 |