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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Apr 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 663 km/s at 16/0138Z. Total
IMF reached 24 nT at 16/0032Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -17 nT at 15/2101Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 885 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (17 Apr), unsettled
to active levels on day two (18 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (19 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Apr to 19 Apr
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Apr 148 Predicted 17 Apr-19 Apr 155/150/150 90 Day Mean 16 Apr 177
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr 013/ NA Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr 026/041 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr 022/030-014/018-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr to 19 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 35% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/04/18 | M4.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/04/16 | Kp8- (G4) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| March 2025 | 134.2 -20.4 |
| April 2025 | 120.1 -14.1 |
| Last 30 days | 116.4 -25.9 |