Viewing archive of Sunday, 26 January 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Jan 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 026 Issued at 2200Z on 26 JAN 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8014 (S12E32) IS
THE ONLY SPOTTED REGION ON THE DISK AND WAS VERY QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET FROM THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
UNTIL ABOUT 12Z WHEN THE FIELD ATTAINED UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS
WITH SOME MINOR STORM PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES. SOLAR WIND
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED AN INITIAL INTERVAL OF ENHANCED DENSITY,
SOLAR WIND SPEED, AND ENHANCED MAGNETIC FIELD STRENGTH, FOLLOWED BY
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF INCREASING SOLAR WIND SPEED AND DECREASING
DENSITY. THERE WAS NO OBVIOUS SOLAR SOURCE FOR THIS DISTURBANCE IN
THE AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CURRENT
DISTURBANCE PERSISTS. REGIONS NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT MAY EXPERIENCE
INTERVALS OF ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS DUE TO SUBSTORM ACTIVITY,
ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER LATITUDES. MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RESUME ON THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS OF THE FORECAST
INTERVAL.
III. Event Probabilities 27 JAN to 29 JAN
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 JAN 074 Predicted 27 JAN-29 JAN 074/074/074 90 Day Mean 26 JAN 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 JAN 007/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 JAN 012/009 PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 JAN-29 JAN 010/008-007/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 JAN to 29 JAN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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