Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 April 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Apr 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 109 Issued at 2200Z on 19 APR 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED. REGION 8032 (S24W49) HAS DECAYED INTO A SPOTLESS PLAGE AND NEW REGION 8034 (N21W16), A SINGLE SPOT 'AXX' ALPHA GROUP WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH A SINGLE PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS RECORDED AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING THE INTERVAL 19/0600-0900Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX HAS BEEN MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS ON DAY THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 20 APR to 22 APR
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 APR 070
  Predicted   20 APR-22 APR  071/071/071
  90 Day Mean        19 APR 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 APR  014/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 APR  012/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 APR-22 APR  010/008-010/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 APR to 22 APR
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%30%
Minor storm05%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%30%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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