Viewing archive of Friday, 16 May 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 May 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 MAY 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8038 (N21W70) CONTINUES TO DECAY SLOWLY. NEW REGION 8040 (N06E56), A SMALL A-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP, WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDES WAS MODERATE AFTER 16/1646Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 17 MAY to 19 MAY
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 MAY 072
  Predicted   17 MAY-19 MAY  072/070/070
  90 Day Mean        16 MAY 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 MAY  033/053
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 MAY  012/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 MAY-19 MAY  010/012-010/010-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 MAY to 19 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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