Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 May 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 May 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 MAY 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8038 (N20W58)
REMAINS THE ONLY REGION ON THE SOLAR DISK. THIS REGION IS DECAYING
SLOWLY AND HAS NOT PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WITHIN THE LAST
DAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. AN ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARE MAY OCCUR IN REGION 8038.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MAJOR STORM AT MIDDLE
LATITUDES AND UNSETTLED TO SEVERE STORM AT HIGH LATITUDES. THE MOST
DISTURBED PERIODS OCCURRED BETWEEN 15/0900-1500Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS
BELIEVED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARTH-DIRECTED CME EVENT OBSERVED
ON MAY 12.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME QUIET TO UNSETTLED AS TODAY'S DISTURBANCE
SUBSIDES. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 16 MAY to 18 MAY
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 MAY 073 Predicted 16 MAY-18 MAY 072/070/070 90 Day Mean 15 MAY 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 MAY 006/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 MAY 038/055 PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 MAY-18 MAY 015/015-010/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 MAY to 18 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Sunday, 8 December 2024
X2.2 solar flare, SDO outage
Thursday, 21 November 2024
Major far side eruption, S1 radiation storm
Monday, 11 November 2024
Coronal hole faces Earth
Latest forum messages
50 mhz F2 51AR 13932 13Power transmission for all of us. And why I believe we are better prepared than ever for major solar events 11Strong far side CME 335Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1353
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2024 | 152.5 -13.9 |
| December 2024 | 103.3 -49.2 |
| Last 30 days | 114 -43.9 |