Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 May 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 May 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 MAY 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. ONLY SMALL B-CLASS X-RAY FLARES OCCURRED AND NO OPTICAL FLARES WERE REPORTED. REGION 8038 (N20W44) REMAINS THE ONLY SUNSPOT GROUP ON THE DISK.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW. AN ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARE IS POSSIBLE IN REGION 8038.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE WITH POSSIBLE STORM PERIODS ON 15 MAY IN RESPONSE TO THE CME EVENT DETECTED ON 12 MAY.
III. Event Probabilities 15 MAY to 17 MAY
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 MAY 074
  Predicted   15 MAY-17 MAY  072/072/070
  90 Day Mean        14 MAY 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 MAY  003/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 MAY  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 MAY-17 MAY  025/025-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 MAY to 17 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm40%10%05%
Major-severe storm30%15%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%25%20%
Minor storm40%20%10%
Major-severe storm40%15%05%

All times in UTC

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