Viewing archive of Tuesday, 26 October 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Oct 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 687 (N12W11) produced a C2.2 flare at 26/1506 UTC. This Region exhibited some decay in both white light area coverage and magnetic complexity. Region 691 (N15E32), still shows a beta-gamma-delta configuration and produced a C1.3 flare at 26/1839 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Regions 687 and 691 have potential for M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed at ACE declined from approximately 470 km/s to 420 km/s during the reporting period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Oct 137
  Predicted   27 Oct-29 Oct  135/135/130
  90 Day Mean        26 Oct 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct  009/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Oct  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct  005/005-005/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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